Kitabı oku: «The Lost Fruits of Waterloo», sayfa 5

It was Bismarck’s idea to form an alliance so powerful that no other state nor group of states would dare attack it, and by holding his allies in hand to preserve peace. That was the way the Balance of Power was to serve to prevent war. For his purpose he formed what was known as the Three Emperors’ League, consisting of the rulers of Germany, Russia, and Austria. The combination was weak in one important point; for Russia and Austria had rival hopes of territorial gains in the Near East, and they were not likely to remain permanently in accord. With an eye to such a disruption of the alliance Bismarck looked about for another state which could be added to the group. He turned to Italy, bound to him because he had befriended her in her struggle for nationality.

To bring Italy into the alliance was not easy; for she was bitterly hostile to Austria, who still held the unredeemed part of the Italian people and who was still hated in the peninsula for her ancient oppression of Italian provinces. The Iron Chancellor generally carried his point, partly because of his personal ability and partly because it was felt that he could and would live up to his promises. He showed the king of Italy the advantages the kingdom would have under German protection, which would support it against France, strengthen it in the quarrel with the pope, and even hold back Austria if that power was inclined to pay off old scores. These arrangements were completed in 1882 and gave rise to the Triple Alliance, until 1914 a strong factor in European affairs. The greatness of Bismarck is well shown in the fact that he could carry this plan through and still retain Russia in coöperation with Austria and Germany. Until he retired from office in 1890 he had the support of the tsar.

After he withdrew the union of the three emperors was dissolved. But for his strong hand it could hardly have been formed. Russia and Austria were at bottom rivals. If Germany supported Russia in her plans for the Near East she would offend Austria, and if she lent herself to Austria she would lose Russia. Moreover, if she favored Russia openly she was likely to arouse the opposition of Great Britain, who was at that time very suspicious of the tsar’s designs on Constantinople. It was a delicate situation, and it was only good luck and Bismarck’s character that kept it intact for more than fifteen years.

After 1890 the Triple Alliance continued its existence, Italy suppressing her dislike for Austria as well as she could in view of her need of strong friends among the nations. But Russia fell away and in 1895 announced that she had formed a Dual Alliance with France, a thing which Bismarck had been very solicitous to prevent. By holding Russia in hand he had been able to isolate France in Europe, but her isolation was now a thing of the past. The Dual Alliance confronted the Triple Alliance and the result was peace. At the same time the rivalry of Russia and Austria over Turkey became more energetic, which tended to increase the probability of war.

Succeeding Bismarck came German statesmen who were not so steady as he, and their weaker hold on the situation added to the gravity of the prospects of peace. It can hardly be doubted that the fall of Bismarck lessened the prospect that Europe would remain at peace. The Balance of Power, which took so clear a form with the organization of the Dual Alliance, was not as good a guarantee of peace as it seemed; for while it made the checking of powers by powers more apparent, its very existence was evidence of a state of stronger rivalry of nations than existed before the Dual Alliance was formed. At the same time the men who now guided the fortunes of Germany were not so convinced as Bismarck that the country should have peace.

While these things happened Great Britain remained generally neutral. She was busy with trade expansion and the development of her colonies, especially in Africa; and her chief interest, so far as the schemes of the Continental nations were concerned, was to see that none of them interfered with her progress in that field of endeavor. Late in Bismarck’s time, however, she became convinced that Germany was becoming a rival both in trade and colonization. It is true that France was also a rival, and between her and Great Britain occurred some sharp passages; but France was not an aggressive nation and had no strong military resources to back her ambitions in the field of peaceful activities. Germany, on the other hand, was increasingly militaristic and the logic of events seemed to indicate that she would at some time in the future be willing to support her commercial and colonial ambition with a formidable appeal to arms. British anxiety was quickened when the young kaiser began to build a great navy, with the avowed object of making it equal to the British navy. For centuries it had been the key-note of British policy to have a navy that could control the seas; and while there was nothing in the will of Father Adam that gave Britons the dominion of the seas, the kaiser must have known that he could not challenge their superiority on water without arousing their gravest apprehension. During the Boer war (1899–1902) Germany gave added offense to Britain. She showed sympathy openly for the Boers, and it was generally believed in Great Britain that she took advantage of the opportunity to try to form a grand alliance to curb the power of the “Mistress of the Seas.” Rumor said that the plan was defeated only by the refusal of France to lend her assistance unless she received Alsace-Lorraine. If the report is true, it only shows what a costly thing to Germany was the hatred that Bismarck created when he put France to the humiliating dismemberment of 1871.

During this period Théophile Delcassé was head of the French foreign office (1898–1905). He was a man of great original ability and was desirous of restoring the prestige of France. When he came into office the French public was excited over the Fashoda incident, a clash of French and British interests in the Sudan which seemed to threaten war. The British government took a strong attitude, as it was likely at that time to do, when it felt that it was dealing with a weaker nation. Delcassé realized that the true welfare of his country demanded friendship with the one power which could help it against Germany, and at the risk of denunciation at home he gave up all that Great Britain demanded in the Sudan. He thus showed that he possessed that high trait of statesmanship which consists in the ability to convert an opponent into a firm friend.

The opportunity to which he was looking forward came when Germany set her plans into operation during the Boer war. He not only held out for the return of the lost provinces but, that failing, made overtures for a better understanding with the British. It was a time when a friendly hand was gladly received by the London government. The result was a series of agreements which became known as the Entente Cordiale, 1904. They marked the reappearance of Great Britain as a leading power in Continental affairs, after a long period of aloofness. She had become an active part of the Balance of Power, and her strength was thrown to the side which was bent on restraining the vast influence of Germany. Her action caused great alarm at Berlin, where her motive was interpreted as commercial jealousy, the statesmen of that city apparently forgetting that they had provoked it by their unfriendly attitude in the Boer war.

In the same year began the Russo-Japanese war (1904–1905). At first glance it would seem that this conflict threatened to weaken the Entente Cordiale, for Japan was allied to Great Britain and Russia was bound up with France by the Dual Alliance. But the result was just the opposite. The Entente was not only left intact, but it was actually strengthened. When Japan defeated Russia, Great Britain ceased to fear Russian aggression in the Far East, which made it possible for her to draw nearer to the Muscovite power. At the same time, Russia, always seeking an outlet to the sea, turned her eyes with greater eagerness than ever to the Near East, which brought her into a more intense state of opposition to Austria and Germany. Delcassé seized the opportunity offered him and succeeded in bringing together these two great nations, which for many years had been continually ready to fly at one another. He put into motion the negotiations out of which was formed the Triple Entente (1907) in which Great Britain, France, and Russia announced that they had settled their differences and would stand together in future crises.

The incidents that followed the culmination of Delcassé’s diplomacy are very striking, but they must be deferred until I reach a later stage of my subject. Here it is only proper to observe that it brought the theory of the Balance of Power to its logical development. Delcassé was in a world in which one great and most efficiently armed nation stood in a position to turn suddenly on the rest of Europe and sweep it into her lap. By her military and naval power, by her vast trained army, by her readiness for instantaneous action, by her well planned strategic railroads, and by her alliances with the middle-European states she was in a threatening position. At a given signal she could seize great domains, fortify herself, and defy all the world to drive her out of what she had taken. There was hardly an intelligent German who did not believe that this course would be followed in the near future and who did not feel confident that it would make Germany the dominating nation of the world. Against this system the Triple Entente was formed, as a means of balance. It was larger than the Triple Alliance but not so effectively led.

And here I must observe that these two groups had come into existence in the most natural way. Bismarck had founded the Triple Alliance as a means of preserving peace, not as a means of aggression; but it had become something more than he intended it to be. It had enabled Germany to play such a part in European politics that the creation of another great group as a balance was apparently demanded. Immediately that her position was lowered Germany felt aggrieved that the combination had been made against her. So powerful were her convictions about her wrongs that she threw away all thought of a concert of the Great Powers for the settlement of the difficulty. She had trusted to the Balance to protect her; but she now considered it something more than a state of equilibrium and she appealed to arms. Before this narrative recounts the actual events by which she felt that she was justified in taking this step, it is necessary to consider the Balkan question, a series of causes and events which for nearly a century has been an open menace to European peace and stability.

CHAPTER VI
THE BALKAN STATES

Viscount Grey has been criticized for not understanding the Balkan problem. If his critics understood how complex is the story of the last century in this part of Europe they would withold their strictures. I, at least, do not blame any man for failing to carry in his mind an appreciation of all that the mixed mass of races and religions in the Balkan country have striven and hoped for during the recent past. In this chapter the best that can be promised is an account of the main facts of Balkan history. A more detailed narrative would be confusing to the reader. A failure to mention the subject would leave much unexplained that is essential to an understanding of the origin of the present war. And we shall hardly know how to decide what kind of a peace the future security of Europe demands, if we leave out of consideration the proper disposition to be made of the small states of the Southeast.

In 1453 Turkey took Constantinople and began a series of conquests that carried her to the very gates of the city of Vienna. That important stronghold seemed about to fall into her hands in 1683, when an army of Polish and German soldiers came to its rescue in the name of Christianity, drove off the infidels, and wrenched Hungary out of their hands for the benefit of the Austrian power. This struggle proved the highwater mark of Turkish conquest in Europe. From that time to this, wars of reconquest have followed one another, the pagans always playing a losing game. But for a long time all that part of Southeastern Europe that could be reached from the Black Sea was held by the Turks, the part that was easily reached from Germany was held by the Christians, and the part that lay between, a broad belt of hilly country, was continually in dispute. Across it armies fought back and forth, each side winning and losing in turn, but with the general result in favor of the Christians, who slowly pushed back the frontier of their enemies.

The region held by the Turks was tenacious of its Christian faith and recognized the religious authority of the Patriarch of Constantinople, who, Christian though he was, stood under the control of the sultan. The inhabitants suffered many hardships and were reduced to the condition of serfs under Mohammedan masters. The long bondage to their overlords had a peculiar effect on their characters. They came to think it right to use fraud, violence, and subterfuge against their oppressors, and so they employed religion and patriotism to defend the commission of acts which in ordinary situations are considered without the pale of civilized conduct. To this day the Balkan states are not rid of their heritage from these years of moral darkness.

The Balkan people, ruled long as Turkish subjects, have gradually formed themselves into five principal groups as follows: the Serbians, dwelling in the interior of the country northwest of Turkey proper and occupying much of the hinterland lying east of the Adriatic; the Bulgars, settled east of the Serbs and extending as far as the shores of the Black Sea; the Wallachians and Moldavians, who were of kindred stock and became known as Rumanians because they believed themselves the descendants of the inhabitants of the ancient Roman colony of Dacia; the Albanians living along the lower eastern shores of the Adriatic; and the Montenegrins, of the same race as the Serbians, who defended themselves so well in their mountain strongholds that they could say they had never been conquered by the Turks. Many race elements entered into these groups, but the Serbs and Montenegrins were largely Slavic, while the Bulgars were generally of a distinct race of Asiatic origin, and the Rumanians were generally Vlachs, a name given to the Latin speaking population of the Eastern Roman Empire. The Albanians seem to be of mixed stock, but they have a strong sense of nationality. These five groups correspond respectively to the five civil divisions that have emerged from the Turkish provinces, each playing its part in the modern Balkan problem.

Montenegro aside, the first group to become a state was Serbia, whose hardy mountain inhabitants rose in revolt in 1804. A number of brave leaders appeared and valley by valley the Turks were forced out of the country. The Serbs were practically independent for a time, but the sultan did not acquiesce in their freedom, and the constant preparedness that was necessary to repel any attack he might launch was a source of much expense and anxiety to the people.

In 1821 the Greeks, also under the domination of Turkey, rose in revolt. Great sympathy was aroused in the rest of Europe and in spite of the disposition of the Great Powers to allow Turkey a free hand to preserve her territory intact, lest one of them gain over-balancing territory, public opinion forced them to intervene. The first to show sympathy was Russia, who had an interest in making herself the protector of the Christians in Turkey. The other powers resented her assistance to the Greeks, and finally Great Britain and France united in a project of intervention, sending a joint fleet to the Mediterranean which destroyed the Turkish fleet at Navarino in 1827. The stubborn sultan remained unyielding, and in 1828 Russia entered the war openly, having come to an agreement with the other Powers. She sent an army across the border which carried all before it, and the sultan was forced to make the treaty of Adrianople, in which Turkey recognized the independence of Greece and acknowledged Serbia as an autonomous state under Turkish suzerainty. At the same time Wallachia and Moldavia, where Rumans lived, were recognized as independent under a Russian protectorate. Thus one sovereign and three dependent but locally autonomous states stood forth out of the confused and misgoverned Christian area of Turkey in Europe.

The rest of the region, occupied by Bulgars and Albanians, with Bosnia and Herzegovina, claimed by the Serbs as legitimate parts of their national habitat, remained in an unredeemed condition and were governed by agents appointed by the sultan. Montenegro retained her position of practical independence, which Turkey had been forced to acknowledge in 1799. These arrangements were confirmed in a more formal treaty in 1832.

The successes of this period quickened the spirit of nationality in the Balkans. Just as the Greeks were swept by a wave of enthusiasm for their classical culture and sought to revive the language and ideals of the remote past, so the Balkan peoples set out to revive their ancient culture, long obscured by the shadow of Turkish masters. Serbs, Rumans, and Bulgars made grammars of their own languages, gathered up what was preserved of their ancient literatures and traditions, taught their children to revere the national heroes, and sought in many other ways to stimulate the spirit of nationality. The Slavic portion turned to Russia for support, whom they called their “big brother,” while the Rumans cultivated an appreciation of Italy and France, whom they considered kindred descendants of the ancient Romans. To their national hopes in these things was added the desire for religious independence. They disliked being under the ecclesiastical authority of the Patriarch of Constantinople, who was appointed by the sultan, and looked forward to a time when they might have exarchs of their own, with jurisdiction not limited by the Patriarch.

In 1854 Russia was ready for another advance in the region of the Balkans, hoping to gain at last what Peter the Great had declared was essential to her progress, a window looking out on the Mediterranean. Great Britain and France came to the help of the sultan and the Crimean War followed. After a hard struggle it ended in Russia’s defeat, and at the Conference of Paris, 1856, the affairs of the Balkans were again up for settlement, but this time the victory leaned to the side of the Turk, although it was modified by the restraining hand of his two allies. The purport of the treaty was to reduce the power of Russia, and in doing so the aspirations of the Balkans states were checked. The protectorate the tsar had established over Wallachia and Moldavia was destroyed, and Bulgars, who had expected independence, remained under the rule of the sultan, while Greece, who had desired a large portion of Macedonia, was forced to continue in her old boundaries. This crisis was not the last in which the vexed Balkan question, seemingly near solution, was made to give way before the complicated problems of the general European situation. Looking backward we may well say that if Russia had secured her wish, expelled the Turk from Constantinople and liberated the Balkan states, the fortunes of France would not have been lessened, and Great Britain, safe through her supremacy at sea, would not have lost any of the strength she had in India. At the same time the sore spot of European relations would have been healed, and we should probably have had no war in 1914.

Wallachia and Moldavia were of the same stock and wished to unite as one kingdom. They made their desires known in the negotiations that resulted in the Treaty of Paris, but the Powers did not mean to create a large state on the borders of Russia which might prove a bulwark of influence for the tsar, and accordingly they denied the request. The two states found a way to accomplish their desire, soon after the conference at Paris adjourned. Meeting to select rulers each chose Alexander John Cuza simultaneously, and after hesitating two years the Powers acknowledged him as king. Thus was formed the united kingdom of Rumania; and its formation illustrated a weak point in the Concert of Europe. However much the Powers might interfere to prevent the consummation of an act they considered dangerous, they would think twice before trying to punish a Balkan state, since in doing so they might set off an explosion in the very system they were working to keep peaceful. Rumania understood this phase of the matter and took her chances. Her firm course had its reward.

The influence of Great Britain was now paramount at Constantinople. The sultan was satisfied with his ally, since he knew that of all the Powers he had least to fear from this state, which had no territories in that part of the Mediterranean and was committed to the preservation of his rule as a means of keeping Russia away from the Bosphorus. To justify herself for defending the Turk, Great Britain gave the world assurances that the sultan was about to become good. Under her insistance a series of reforms was announced, but they did not go far in the realization. Some of the promises referred to the government of the Balkans, but they were as fruitless as the others. Meanwhile French and British merchants found large profits in Turkish trade.

The tsar was humiliated by his loss of influence in the Southeast, and in 1877 he began another war against Turkey. He thought the time favorable for such action. Impeded for a while at Plevna, in Bulgaria, he at last swept the enemy before him and took Adrianople on January 16, 1878. His successes created great enthusiasm among the Serbs, Bulgars, and Rumans, who flocked to his victorious standard. The panic-stricken sultan sued for peace and at San Stefano signed a treaty which granted all that was demanded of him. Serbia, Montenegro, and Rumania were recognized as completely independent, Bulgaria as an autonomous tributary province, and Bosnia and Herzegovina were assured of important administrative reforms. Russia was awarded some territory not strictly in the Balkans, but her greatest gain was the prestige she now had as liberator of Christian states.

The treaty of San Stefano alarmed Great Britain and Austria, both of whom felt that they had major interests at stake. They got a congress of the Great Powers to meet at Berlin, 1878, which revised the treaty in what they were pleased to call the interest of European peace. Complete independence was announced for Serbia, Rumania, and Montenegro, and the sultan accepted the fact of their perfect sovereignty. By the treaty of San Stefano Bulgaria was to include Macedon and eastern Rumelia, making one great buffer province between the Turkish and the Christian states. The three parts were now left distinct, Bulgaria proper being autonomous but under Turkish suzerainty, and the other two less independent.

To create a “Big Bulgaria” as a bulwark against Turkey had been Russia’s chief hope in the war. Her initial success awakened enthusiasm in all the Balkan people, and the results were expressed in the way in which they rallied to her aid. At last, said the onlookers, an opportunity had come to found a strong Balkan confederacy which would play an important part in the development of the Near East. The hand of Russia seemed strong enough to hold these nascent states to one policy, allay their incipient jealousies, and bring them to a great common ideal. If such a course could have been adopted the future of Europe would have been profoundly altered. It was defeated by that Concert of Europe which was supposed to exist in order that the world might be spared the burden of war. It was really prevented through the operation of the forces of national selfishness, safely esconced in the system which we have called the Concert of Europe.

The ambition of Austria-Hungary played a large part at the Congress of Berlin. This nation had long looked upon the region that separated her from the Adriatic as a sphere through which she was justified in extending her power at the expense of Turkey, and she now felt that the time had come to realize her plans. If she waited, Russia would acquire such an influence as to forestall Austrian advancement. Her eyes were fixed on Bosnia and Herzegovina, for some time in revolt against Turkish misgovernment. Her influence was such that the congress gave her the right to occupy and administer the two provinces under the reservation of sovereignty to the sultan. The inhabitants, who were largely Slavic, were forced to accept the decision, although they did not relax their cherished hopes of independence. They were pawns thrown to Austria as a balance for the gains of Russia. The transaction only whetted the Austrian appetite for more and deepened the Serbian resentment for Austria.

Great Britain had her advantage out of the bargain also. She retained her position of paramount friend at Constantinople, justifying herself with the assurance that the sultan would carry out reforms in his empire. She seemed to think that the “Sick Man of Europe” would cure himself under her guidance and then defend himself against states that tried to oust him from his seat of power. To enable her to watch the bedside of her patient from a convenient position, as well as to safeguard the Suez Canal, Great Britain was given the right to occupy and administer the island of Cyprus under nominal authority of Turkey. To be perfectly fair we must admit that there is little moral difference between her acquisition of Cyprus and Austria’s gain in Bosnia and Herzegovina; and it is clear that in this case the Concert of Europe was a concert for the gain of selfish ends. It is also worth while to note that two of the Great Powers took no benefit from the agreement. France was slowly recovering from the war of 1870–1871 and was in no condition to fight, although in 1881 she established a protectorate over Tunis. The German Empire, newly founded and not yet fully adapted to the imperial system, was also in no condition to undertake a stiff encounter. There were many Germans who wished that their government should not allow the other states to get large gains of territory while Germany got nothing; but they yielded to Bismarck’s wise policy which held that it was not yet time for Germany to assume an aggressive position in the world. The impatience of the German patriots lost nothing through having to wait.

No treaty ends the march of time, and the Balkan situation continued to develop along the old lines. In 1881 Greece acquired Thessaly in accordance with a promise made to her at the Congress of Berlin. In 1885 East Rumelia declared herself united to Bulgaria, acting in defiance of the will of the Congress of Berlin. The Powers did not interfere for the same reason that they did not act when Wallachia and Moldavia united in 1862. To attempt to undo the union would have precipitated a general war. The Concert was stronger to prevent a given action than to correct it after it was done. Serbia, however, took the action of the two provinces as a menace and declared war against the new state of Bulgaria. She seemed about to throw herself on her adversary when she suddenly made peace, evidently feeling she was not strong enough to carry on the war alone.

Thenceforth the Powers showed that they did not mean to allow the Balkan states to profit by seizing parts of the decaying Turkish Empire. But for their restraint it seems that the Turk would have been expelled from Europe before the end of the nineteenth century.

Their intention was clearly manifested in regard to the island of Crete, whose population long suffered from Turkish oppression. In 1896 the island was in revolt and the sultan was forced to promise reforms. The assurance proved empty and in 1897 Greece interfered in behalf of Crete. In the war that followed the Greeks fought heroically but alone and were no match for Turkey in operations on land. They made peace without success, but through the instrumentality of the Great Powers the sultan agreed to allow Crete self-government under an elected assembly. The powers let it be known that they would not have the island annexed to Greece, which they did not mean to make a preponderating influence in the Balkans. Now appeared a great Cretan leader, Eleutherios Venezelos, whom his admirers call the Cavour of Greece. Under his influence the Cretan assembly voted the union of the island with Greece in 1905, but again the Powers interposed, insisting that the sovereignty of the sultan should not be abrogated. However, they permitted the Greek king to appoint a representative to rule the island as a Turkish fief, and Greek officers were allowed to train the Cretan soldiers and police. At last the Balkan war (1912–1913) brought the completion of union, the Great Powers yielding their assent.

The explanation of the conduct of the Powers in this incident is to be found in the delicate nature of the whole Balkan question. With Austria and Russia keenly aroused and each of the Balkan states anxiously looking for the moment when the rest of the sultan’s territory in Europe was to be divided between them, it was evident that a little thing could precipitate a serious conflict. It was in view of this phase of the situation that the Balkans were called “the tinder-box of Europe.”

It will be observed that while these things happened the Balkan states were developing steadily in national resources and spirit. Greece, Serbia, Bulgaria, and Rumania became vitally organized powers, it became more and more evident that they were no longer mere pawns in the diplomatic game, and the time was fast approaching when they would wish to take parts on their own initiative. So assertive were they becoming that it was certain that the time would soon come when the Great Powers would tire of the process of holding conferences to keep these states out of trouble. It is not an easy task to serve as custodian for a “tinder-box.”