Kitabı oku: «Invention: The Master-key to Progress», sayfa 21
It is interesting to consider what would have been the effect on the war (and, therefore, on all subsequent history) if the United States had sent a large force of bombing aeroplanes and torpedoplanes to Europe shortly after we entered the war in the Spring of 1917. This we easily could have done, if we had started to get them ready, when the suggestion was first made; or even at a considerable time thereafter. Certainly, the war would have been greatly shortened, and much suffering averted.
The inventions and discoveries made since the Great War began, though some are evidently important, are so recent that we cannot state with any confidence what their effect will be; and for this reason the author craves permission to close his brief story at this point.
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A noteworthy fact observable in the history of invention is that it has been confined almost wholly to Egypt, Assyria, Babylon, China, Persia, Greece, Italy, Germany, France, Great Britain, and the United States, and to a few men in those countries. Now it is in those countries that the highest degree of civilization has been developed, and it is from them that other nations have drawn theirs. The almost total absence of invention in women is more noteworthy still; for Mrs. Eddy and Madame Curie seem to be the only women who have contributed really original and important work.
Another noteworthy fact is that the idea-germs from which all inventions have been developed have been very few and very tiny. But what a numerous and important progeny has been brought forth; and how wholly impossible civilization would be now, had it not been for a few basic inventions and certain improvements made upon them! We can realize this, if we try to imagine the effect of removing a single one of the basic inventions (and even of certain derived inventions) from the Machine of Civilization.
Try to imagine what would happen if the invented art of – say writing – for instance were suddenly lost. Would not the whole civilized world be thrown into chaos as soon as the fact were realized? A like disorder would be occasioned, though possibly not so quickly, if men should suddenly forget how to print, or even how to use the telegraph, telephone or the comparatively unimportant typewriter. Try to imagine what would happen in even one city, – say New York – if the typewriter were suddenly to be withdrawn! Would not all the business of New York be paralyzed in a single day? Or fancy that all the machines for making and utilizing electricity for supplying light and power should suddenly become inoperative. Would there not be a panic within twenty-four hours or less? Fancy that all the elevators should have to stop. Imagine what would happen if the steam engine should suddenly cease to operate, and all the steamships and railroad trains should stop, and the countless wheels of industry that are turned directly or indirectly by steam should cease to turn. Imagine that gunpowder should cease to function, and that savages could meet modern armies on equal terms.
Some one may declare that this line of argument does not prove as much as it seems to prove regarding the influence of invention, for the reason that it includes a sudden change, and that every sudden change produces results which are caused merely by the suddenness of the change. So let us grant this, and then imagine that the changes suggested would not take place suddenly, but very slowly. Imagine, for instance, that we should discover that the various inventions noted in this book were gradually to cease to operate, but that they would not cease altogether for twenty years, or even forty. Is it not certain that the human race would revert to savagery, after those inventions had ceased to operate?
CHAPTER XV
THE MACHINE OF CIVILIZATION, AND THE DANGEROUS IGNORANCE CONCERNING IT, SHOWN BY STATESMEN
The originating work of inventors of all kinds, and the assistance rendered by countless wise and good men and women, have built up a Machine of Civilization that is surpassingly wonderful and fine.
To keep the great Machine in order and to handle it, large numbers of men have been educated in specialties pertaining to its various parts. The first men were probably the warriors, who defended whatever little Machines the various tribes had built up, in their little villages and towns. Next, probably, came the kings or rulers who commanded the warriors; and then, the priests who inculcated in the people the various virtues, such as loyalty, courage, honesty, etc., that tended toward the discipline of the individual and the consequent solidarity of the tribe. Probably agriculturists came next, who tilled the soil; and then came the inventors, who assisted the warriors and the agriculturalists by devising implements to help them do their work. It seems probable that the artisans came next; and that it was by the co-operative working of them with the inventors, that the conceptions of the inventors were embodied in implements of practical usefulness and value. As time went on, and implements were produced that consisted of two or more parts, the activities of the artisans were enlarged, so as to take care of those implements and keep them in adjustment. The bow and arrow, for instance, would not work well, unless the cord were maintained at the correct degree of tension, the feathers on the arrows were kept straight, the ends of the cords properly secured to the bow, etc. Similarly, the mechanisms made for spinning and weaving and fabricating pottery had to be kept in proper condition and adjustment; and if we could realize the small amount of mechanical knowledge extant in primeval days, we would probably also realize that the difficulties of keeping these crude appliances in good working order were as great as are the like difficulties now, with the most complicated printing-press.
Furthermore, it was not only for keeping mechanisms in good condition that artisans were needed: a higher degree of skill was needed for operating them. We are forced to the conclusion that, as soon as mechanisms were produced, the need of artisans trained to operate them was felt. Not only this: the fact that the mechanisms were operated, the facts that flax was spun and textures were woven, and pottery was fashioned and baked, and that bows and arrows were used in battle, prove that operators were actually trained to skill in the various arts. This means that, as soon as the Machine of Civilization was begun, operators skilled in the kinds of work which that Machine required were trained in their various parts, and did their appointed work.
It was not only machines of brass and iron and wood, moreover, that required skilled operators: the individual human machines were continually getting out of order, and men were trained in whatever knowledge the world contained, to keep them in good order. Hence the physician came into being.
The merchant must have been developed shortly after the agriculturist and the artisan, to act as the agent for placing the products of the soil and the products of the mechanisms in the possession of the consumers.
As a tribe or nation increased in size, laws had to be formed to regulate the mode of living of its members, decide disputes, punish offences, and regulate conduct in general. Hence the lawyer was gradually developed.
It seems probable, therefore, that even in prehistoric times, warriors, rulers, priests, physicians, agriculturists, inventors, artisans, merchants, and lawyers were at work, and that the activities of men were divided mainly among those classes.
The activities of men are similarly divided now. In fact, it is by these separate activities that the separate parts of the Machine are handled. That these separate parts are handled well, the progress made in those parts convincingly testifies.
Despite this fact, however, no book on invention would be complete which did not point out that the Machine, as a whole, is not being handled well.
The Machine in each country is, of course, handled by the ruler and his assistants. Originally the ruler handled it alone; but, as it increased in complexity and size, the task became too great for one man, and advisers and ministers were appointed to assist him. Men fulfilling such tasks and allied tasks we now call statesmen.
Now it is to the hands of the statesmen of each country that the actual management of the Machine of Civilization is committed. Yet it is a well-known fact that although there are but few men in the world so wise and learned that they know much about the Machine or any of its parts, yet it is not from the wise and learned class that the great officials of governments are selected!
The truth of this statement cannot reasonably be denied. That the whole safety of the Machine of Civilization is in the hands of men untrained in statesmanship is incontrovertible. In fact, the whole status of statesmanship is disconcertingly vague; for in all the grand progress of mankind, no science of statesmanship seems to have developed, or any system of training to practice it. There seem to be no fixed principles of statesmanship, no literature except of an historical kind, and little activity save of an opportunistic sort. No special education seems to be thought necessary in a statesman, or any record of achievement; for in all countries, irrespective of their form of government, men are placed in positions carrying the utmost of human power for good and for evil, with little previous experience or training, and without having to pass any examinations of any kind!
This fact demands attention. Of what avail is it to train men to handle the separate parts of the Machine, if the Machine as a whole is to be handled by untrained men? Of what avail is it to train engineers, warriors, priests, physicians, lawyers and merchants to handle their several parts, if the Machine as a whole is to be handled by statesmen who have not been trained to handle it? It must be obvious that no men can handle the Machine as a whole, unless they comprehend the Machine as a whole, and also understand all its parts enough to realize their relation to the whole. No man can well handle any machine, be it large, or be it small, without such knowledge. No man can be a good captain of a battleship, for instance, until he has spent many years mastering the necessary knowledge. Ignorance of the parts and the whole of a battleship is not permitted in a captain of a battleship. Why is ignorance of the parts and the whole of their respective responsibilities permitted in officials occupying higher places in the governments?
That there are few men in the world who understand enough of all the various parts of the Machine to understand the Machine as a whole is certainly unfortunate; that almost none of these few men are selected to fill the positions of statesmen is dangerous to the last degree. For the Machine has grown to be extremely complicated; and it has the quality, which all machines have in common, that an injury to any part affects the whole. This quality is highly valuable, in fact it is essential; but it carries with it a menace to the entire machine, if it is operated by unskilled men. The Machine of Civilization came very near to being smashed in the World War; because the statesmen of France and Great Britain were so inefficient in the most important part of their work (that of guarding the Machine as a whole) that they permitted Germany to catch them unprepared.
The longer this condition continues to prevail, the greater the danger to the Machine of Civilization will become. The resources of invention are infinite. The resources of invention are almost untouched. Every new discovery or invention prepares the road for a multitude of others. These inventions and discoveries improve and enlarge the Machine; but they complicate it more and more, and demand greater knowledge in statesmen; just as increase in complexity of ships demands greater knowledge in captains.
It can be mathematically proved by the Theory of Probabilities that, if there be any chance that a certain accident may occur, it will surely occur some day if the predisposing causes are suffered to continue; and that therefore, any machine committed to unskilful handling will be wrecked some day, if the unskilful handling is suffered to continue. This establishes the probability that our Machine of Civilization will be wrecked some day, unless statesmen be trained to handle it.
An invention seems to be needed that will insure adequate knowledge in high officials in governments. But such an invention is not really needed, because it is merely necessary to utilize an invention made and used in Greece many centuries ago. This invention consisted in conceiving, developing and producing a system whereby every candidate for any office was required to show adequate knowledge of matters coming within the jurisdiction of that office, by passing a rigid examination.
Such a system may be deemed impracticable in modern representative governments. Why? It is followed in all civilized armies and navies.
If it be really impracticable, then it is impracticable to assure that wise and able men shall manage the complex Machine of Civilization. This means, if history has any lessons for us, that sooner or later, it will again go down in ruin; – as it has gone down at different periods of the past, in Egypt and Assyria and Babylon and Rome.
That influences are already at work which impair the functioning of the Machine in the present and threaten its continuance in the future, cannot reasonably be denied. Of these, the two most powerful may be classed under the general heading "bolshevistic" and "pacifistic." At the bottom of the bolshevistic movement is, of course, the thirst for wealth and power; the thirst for opportunities for handling and using the Machine and its various parts, by men who have done no work in designing, or building, or caring for it. At the bottom of the pacifistic movement is effeminacy: a desire for mere ease and luxury and softness, a shirking of responsibility and discipline and sacrifice.
These two influences, unlike though they are, combine to threaten the Machine; the bolshevistic by assault, the pacifistic by insuring weakness of resistance to assault. Of these, the pacifistic is the more dangerous, because the more insidious; for the same reason that a disease hidden inside is more dangerous than an attack made openly outside. The most potent cause of pacifism is the effeminacy caused by the combination of prosperity and long-continued peace, with its resulting division of a population into a vulgarly ostentatious rich minority and a more or less envious poor majority. When a division like this has come to pass, hostile conflict has usually ensued. Such a conflict produced the French Revolution, and almost wrecked the Machine in France. Such a conflict is now in progress in Russia, and threatens some parts of Europe.
Unfortunately, the progress of invention, by enlarging the scope and speed of communication and facilitating the acquiring of superficial knowledge, has put into the hands of men possessing merely the natural gift of eloquence the power to influence large numbers of people, without possessing knowledge or skill in statesmanship. It has facilitated demagoguery: – and herein lies the root of the danger to the Machine; for without the demagogue, the bolshevist and the pacifist would be unable to get their civilization-destroying doctrines presented attractively to the people.
Fortunately, the Great War, though it caused tremendous suffering, broke up many visionary notions that were crystallizing into beliefs, and brought the world face to face again with realities. And although the violent disturbance of society's always unstable equilibrium is still evident in the world-wide unrest among the poorer classes, yet the unrest seems gradually to be dying down, with the realization that better conditions of living will be theirs in future.
And as every nation that is not wholly degenerate, possesses the power within itself to save itself, and as the great nations of the earth are very far indeed from being degenerate, we are warranted in assuming that each nation will take the necessary steps, not only to guard the Machine of Civilization, but to increase its power and excellence.
CHAPTER XVI
THE FUTURE
The fact that invention has not only been increasing during the past one hundred years, but that its speed of increase has been increasing and is still increasing, is well recognized. There seems to be a constant force behind invention that imparts to it an acceleration, comparable to that of gravity in accelerating the descent of a falling stone. Such a phenomenon would be thoroughly conformable to modern theories; and that there is a force, impelling people to invent, must be a fact; for otherwise, they would not invent. If that force be constant, the acceleration imparted to invention will be constant. If the force be variable, the acceleration imparted to invention will be variable. In other words, the future speed of invention, like that of every moving body, must be governed by the force behind it and the resistances opposed.
At the present moment, the resistance to invention is being gradually lessened because the benefits coming from invention are being realized. Simultaneously, the facilities for inventing are being increased.
These facilities are mainly in instruments of measurements and research. So many of these are there now, that it would only complicate matters to enumerate them and describe their spheres. Two of the most important are the spectroscope and the photographic camera. By means of the spectroscope, the astronomer can ascertain the chemical elements of far distant stars, the temperature and pressure under which they exist, the stage of progress of the star, and its speed and direction of movement, whether toward us or away. By means of the photographic camera, not only can records be made of stars so far away and faint that light-waves from them cannot be noted by the eye, even with the assistance of the most powerful telescope, – but a virtually unlimited number of permanent records can be made.
All fields of research now feel the assistance imparted by new instruments and methods. Even the chemist realizes the aid of instruments invented by the physicist; while every physicist welcomes the aid that comes to him from chemists. The chemists and the physicist are now working together in harmony and with enthusiasm, engaged in a friendly rivalry as to which shall help the other most. And, as discovery succeeds discovery, and invention succeeds invention, they find themselves – although the domain of each is widening – not drifting farther apart, but drawing closer together. For it seems to be coming more and more assured that the Laws of Nature are simpler than we thought, that chemistry and physics are more alike than we supposed. Many startling generalizations have been suggested, with much reason; such as, that matter and energy are one, that space and time are one, and that even the mind of man may be subjected to physical methods and analysis. In fact, some of the greatest advances made during the past twenty-five years have been in psychology, and achieved largely by the use of physical apparatus. Many subjects, formerly included with alchemy and astrology in the class of occult if not deceitful arts, are now being developed apparently toward more or less exact sciences; as alchemy was developed into chemistry, and astrology into astronomy. Efforts are even being made to communicate with distant planets and with the spirits of the dead.
That much is being attempted that may not be realized is true. But if we realize that the universe is now supposed to be many millions of years old, it seems only yesterday that the phenomena of electrical and magnetic attraction and repulsion were confusing the minds of even the wisest: and now electricity and magnetism are harnessed together, and working together in perfect harmony and marvelous effectiveness, for the good of man.
That the future of invention is to be as brilliant as its past, every omen indicates. In what direction will it proceed? Probably in all directions. But the line of direction that will occur the first to many, is probably in aerial flight. Doubtless it is in aerial flight that the greatest advance has been made since flight was first successfully accomplished in 1903; and doubtless it is in that line that the greatest progress is being made now. The enormous speeds already achieved; the growing size of both aeroplanes and dirigibles; their increasing speed, safety and convenience; the fact that roads are not needed for aerial transportation as they are for carriages and railway trains, or deep water channels as for water craft; and the comparative cheapness with which people and light packages can be carried swiftly and far, all point to a vast increase in aerial transportation, and a great modification in all our modes of living in consequence.
Akin to transportation is communication: – but in communication, one may reasonably feel that we have arrived almost at the boundary line, not only of the possible but even the desirable. For we have almost instantaneous communication all over the surface of the earth and under almost all the ocean, by the telegraph and telephone, using wires and cables; and nearly equally good communication by radio telegraph, using no material connection whatever. The wireless telephone is following fast on the heels of the wireless telegraph; and by it we can already telephone hundreds of miles between stations on land and sea, and carry on conversation for several miles between fast moving aeroplanes.
But progress is going on rapidly also in the older fields of invention. The ocean steamship, especially the battleship, is growing in size, speed and safety; so is the locomotive, so is the automobile. Because of the progress in all the useful arts and sciences, buildings of all kinds are being constructed higher and larger, and more commodious and safe; civil engineering works of all description – roads, canals, bridges and tunnels are setting their durable marks of progress all over the earth; the uses of electricity are growing, and showing every indication that they will continue so to do; and so are the uses of chemistry and light and heat. And through all the industrial world, in manufactures of every kind, we see the same unmistakable signs of progress, increasing progress and increasing rate of progress.
In the field of pure science, we note the same signs of progress, increasing progress, and increasing speed of progress. Naturally, however, it is far more difficult to predict with confidence the direction which future progress will take in this field than in the field of the practical application of pure science, in which invention usually bestirs itself. The fact, however, that any actual advance has begun in any new science gives the best possible reason for expecting that the advance is going to continue. Therefore, we may expect continuing progress in all branches of pure science: for the near future, for instance, in biology, psychology and what is loosely called "psychics," which seems to be a virtual excursion of psychology into the hazy realms of telepathy, clairvoyance, spiritualism, and so forth.
That invention and research are concerning themselves more and more with immaterial subjects is a fact that is not only noticeable but of vital importance to us, for signs are not lacking that man's material comfort is already sufficiently well-assured; in fact, that perhaps he is already too comfortable for his physical well-being. Already we see that labor saving and comfort-producing appliances are impairing the physical strength of men and women, and to such a degree that artificial exercises are prescribed by doctors. Inasmuch as "the mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven," it seems probable that the direction of effort in which the greatest real benefit can be attained is in research and consequent invention concerning the mind itself. But, for the reason that this is probably the most difficult road, it seems probable that success in it may come the latest. It seems probable also that even in that road, progress will be achieved by means analogous to those by which it has been achieved in other roads; that is by the use of physical and chemical instruments and methods. Much has been done already by their aid in psychology, and much more is promised in the not distant future.
The idea of influencing the mind directly to states of happiness, and guarding it from unhappiness, is far from new; for what were the epicureans, stoics, and others trying to do but that? Such attempts, many systems of philosophy and many mystic sects distinctly made. Of these sects, one of the most interesting was that of the omphalopsychites, who were able to raise themselves to high states of happiness by the simple and inexpensive process of gazing at their navels. Some advantages of their system are obvious. Certainly it was less costly than other means of gaining happiness, such as wearing narrow-toed shoes, chewing tobacco, smoking cigarettes and drinking whiskey; and there is no evidence that it ever caused ingrowing toe-nails, delirium tremens, or Bright's disease.
That invention and progress have produced and may be relied upon to continue to produce prosperity, may reasonably be predicted. But will they together produce happiness?
The author respectfully begs to be excused from answering this question. He requests attention, however, to the manifest facts that invention is a natural gift, that the impetus to invention has always been the desire to achieve prosperity of some kind, and that to employ our natural gifts to satisfy our natural instincts can reasonably be expected to further our happiness; unless, indeed, we suspect Nature of playing tricks upon us.
That Nature sometimes seems to do this, and that it is dangerous to follow our instincts blindly is of course a fact. But it seems to be a fact also that the danger in following our instincts seems to come only when we follow them blindly; and that, though there may be danger sometimes in following them even under the guidance of our reason, yet the only way in which we have ever progressed at all has been by following our instincts under reason's guidance, and invention's inspiration.
And since the civilized world is in virtual agreement that civilization is a happier state than savagery, and since we have been impelled toward civilization by invention mainly, there seems no escape from the conclusion that it is to invention mainly that we must look for increase of happiness in the future.
It may be, of course, that happiness does not come so much from a condition or state attained as from the act of striving to attain it. It may be suggested also by some one that life is merely a game, and that happiness comes from playing the game and not from winning it, just as children delight more in constructing a toy building with their blocks than in the building when completed: for they no sooner complete the building than they knock it down, and begin to build it up again. But, even from this point of view, the desirability of fostering invention would be apparent; because it would continually supply us with new games to play, and new toys with which to play them.
But that any thoughtful person could really think life a game is an impossibility. No man with a mind to reason and a soul to feel can contemplate the awful suffering that has always existed in the world, and think life a mere game. No man can think life a mere game, who with an eye to see and an imagination to conceive, gazes upon the infinite sea of stars visible to his unaided vision, realizes how many thousands upon thousands of stars there are besides, that the photographic camera records, and realizes also that, though light travels even through air at a rate exceeding 186,000 miles per second, yet that some stars are so distant that the light now reaching us from them started ages before the dawn of history. And no man who is able to follow the teachings of science, even superficially, can note the enormous development of civilization during the last few thousand years, and realize that a development similar though infinitely grander, must have been going on in all the universe for countless centuries, without realizing also that "through the ages an increasing purpose runs." He may even note a likeness between it and the development on an infinitely smaller scale, of the conception of a merely human inventor. Possibly, his fancy may even soar still higher: possibly he may even wonder if all this great creation may not be in effect a great invention, and God its Great Creator, because its Great Inventor.
So, whether we fix our thought on what the scientists tell us of the probable course of development of the universe during the countless ages of the past, or consider merely the development of man since the dawn of recorded history, we seem to find as the initiating cause of both – invention.
Let us therefore utilize all means possible to develop this Godgiven faculty, the chiefest of the talents committed to our keeping. That way lie progress, prosperity and happiness. How far and how high it may lead us, God only knows; for the resources of invention are infinite.
