Kitabı oku: «Binary code Mystery number three», sayfa 3
Part Seven: Binary Code-7. Doomsday Time
My dear reader, we have passed with you the level where you learned about the top-secret organization, where information from all intelligence agencies of the world flows, were in the underground at the site "Polygon", which is a separate civilization, visited closed cities, secret laboratories, secret clubs, participated in battles and investigated in the virtual world. Now you will have to take a new turn of events, so steep that you may be washed away by a tsunami wave, literally and figuratively. Get ready, fix yourself in the seat of "Cactus" tighter, establish a connection through the chip in your head with your assistant – artificial intelligence ISU-A2, check the satellites, listen to your inner voice and be ready to see a new sky and a new land. Good luck to you!
Yesterday was a wild beast,
Today, it's a human being,
And tomorrow you'll be the one
Will usher new century
Chapter 1: Doomsday Clock
The next day, on his return from Kola, Ruthra was euphoric about his investigation, but still in a foul mood because it had not solved the main secret, but had confused things even more. It appeared the conspirators and instigators of the problem he was busy finding a solution to could be anywhere, perhaps the main bearer of the secret was not alive. Among other things, there was a lot of urgent business piling up at the facility because of all this latest operation. It was only the positivity of Rutru's outcome that made him a little calmer and allowed him to be proud of himself. All of his wanderings and conspiracy solutions, which Rutra had subjected himself to at his level, were not in vain and once again confirmed the rule: the higher your level, the harder it is to not be yourself. After the last operation, Ruthra began to understand why kings and emperors disguised themselves as commoners: to know exactly what was going on in their heads and what their subjects were thinking; Emperor Nicholas I, for example, had resorted to such methods.
Rutru was torn from his musings by Hent's call:
– Rutra Tigrovic, good afternoon, I realize you are in a bad mood, but I must remind you that professionals play by the rules, and you should know the rules.
"Without a magnifying glass I can see you're kents," Rutra thought of Henta and Jarovitovic.
The fact that Hent spoke ambiguously and in riddles did not surprise Ruthra; he was accustomed to it, and was well versed in "words that were not spoken". What did surprise and alarm him was that he addressed him so formally.
– Good afternoon. I'm listening.
– We need to get together. A big gathering of all the friends. The uniform is the same; shorts, slippers, Komsomol badge. The meeting place can't be changed. Gathering tonight, wear a hood, it might be windy or raining.
Ruthra guessed he was talking about the meeting at the board.
– Roger that. Anything to bring? A snack, maybe?
– It's all there, but you need something that's a little something, something about the eternal. I'm nostalgic for Indian movies, so if you've got something, take it.
– You know I can't refuse you, you're like a father to me.
– I'll be in touch.
– I'll be in touch.
Rutra was already in "thought," and after this he was lost in thought. Why so soon, why he did not call him, why he called and spoke "in ciphers" in an extremely encrypted network. Although it was all a game and a friendly performance. The meeting of the board was agreed in advance and carefully organized, with many distractions, up to the meeting of high-ranking officials, sometimes even presidents. Topics and reports were prepared from the collected materials by special organizations in the best centers. But still – something very serious was being planned.
In the evening, Rutra sat on the board. Yarovitovich was the moderator, as always. Those present sat in semi-darkness, wearing hoods.
– Happy future, colleagues," Yarovitovich began with a greeting. – Today's board should approve the final version of our action plan. Let's listen to the variants of a possible scenario and make decisions. I understand perfectly well that each of you has already discussed it many times, researched it, and with the involvement of well-known world institutions, but it is necessary for all of us to listen together at the board in order to make a joint decision. So, let's begin. Gentlemen, I ask you to listen to an approximate version of the consequences for the population in the event of a radical change in our plan, namely, if we have to shoot down missiles over Russia. You have the floor, my colleague.
A light built into the table lit up in front of the speaker, a man with a beard, wearing a pyramid-shaped hood, began his report.
– Gentlemen, colleagues, like-minded people, let me remind you that the Doomsday Clock shows half a minute to midnight. The position of the hands on its symbolic dial is determined by the editorial board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists at the University of Chicago, which once included the creators of the first atomic bomb. Half a minute to midnight is an alarming number. There are several reasons for the current switch. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists board of directors justified its decision by the fact that the nuclear powers are modernizing and expanding their arsenal of nuclear weapons. Does this mean that nuclear war is really close at hand? If two years ago one could almost unequivocally say "no" to this question, now confidence in the unreality of such a scenario has significantly weakened. So: if there is a war tomorrow. Let's imagine that the irreparable has happened: nuclear war has started and American warheads are about to successfully reach their target. In this case, first of all, all forces will be thrown to ensure the safety of the country's leadership. After ensuring the safety of the country's leadership, qualified personnel, without whom the economy cannot function, will be evacuated. Alas, in the event of a sudden nuclear strike, the civilian population will have a hard time – the fortified bunkers will accommodate only a few people. The main measure to save the civilian population is its emergency evacuation 300 kilometers away from the epicenter of the explosion. In general, in the event of a sudden attack in urban areas, only people in fortified shelters, i.e. qualified personnel and management representatives, will be saved. If we talk about large cities, the only hope for the ordinary population remains the subway, but not all of them, but only deep subway stations.
The man thought for a moment and continued:
– The experience of detonating a nuclear bomb at the Totsk test site showed that over the next several decades, the incidence of cancer increased several times in people living in the area. This experiment shows that the use of nuclear weapons in a populated area is not an inevitable death sentence for all its inhabitants. It is important to understand that the use of an atomic bomb in a more densely populated area would, first of all, destroy buildings and people within a radius of several kilometers, but still would not make rescue measures meaningless. The only case in the history of the USSR when the methods of shielding the population from the radiation threat were actually applied is the Chernobyl disaster. The Civil Defense forces performed the evacuation scenario before the nuclear bomb explosion, and it is in it that the three-day period appears. The fact is that the activity of radionuclides formed during the explosion of a uranium charge decreases a thousand times in three days. Of course, even in case of timely evacuation a large number of human casualties cannot be avoided. Civil defense forces will start burying the bodies of the dead three days after the nuclear strike. The mass graves will be huge. According to a model compiled by British colleagues, an attack on Moscow would be carried out with 48 Trident ballistic missiles launched from submarines. The model assumes that the number of casualties in the 12 weeks after the explosion would be 4 million. The contamination of water supplies and the destruction of residential buildings will cause an increase in the incidence of all kinds of diseases, because radiation has a detrimental effect on the human immune system. In reality, the number of victims may significantly exceed the above figures.
– Thank you, thank you," Yarovitovich stopped him. – As they say, no one is forgotten, nothing is forgotten. I take it you have everything?
– Yes, Your Honor.
– Thank you. Let's move on to the next option.
Chapter 2: Nuclear War and Climate Change
– Another presentation on the topic of impacts, in particular climate change, from our colleague, the Master of the Academy of Sciences. You have the floor.
Yarovitovich did not turn his face, did not point at anyone. It was not quite clear how the next speaker realized that he had been given the floor. Apparently, there was one Master of the Academy of Sciences on the board. The area on the table in front of him lit up.
– I present to your attention a study on the topic "Nuclear War – Possible Climate Change". For many decades the threat of nuclear catastrophe has been hovering over mankind, and scientists of different specialties and all countries have tried to estimate its possible size. Direct destruction and mass deaths during atomic explosions, murderous radiation, diseases and many other things that await mankind in the outcome of a nuclear war have been repeatedly subjected to careful analysis. The conclusions have been horrifying and have disturbed great masses of people. And yet the published results did not provide a clear answer to the question of the possible fate of human civilization after nuclear war. The impression was created that a nuclear war could seemingly end with the victory of one of the warring countries. This created illusions and could be a source of tragic designs. With all the possible variants, no one from military and political strategists considered the option that a nuclear war would have such climatic consequences that mankind would in no way survive! In the late 70s, the Max Planck Institute of Physical Chemistry began to seriously study the phenomena of large-scale fires. The phenomenon of occurrence and development of a large-scale fire with sufficient oxygen, for example, in a forest with a strong wind, was called a fire tornado. Fire tornadoes have the following peculiarity: they eject a huge amount of soot-like material into the upper atmosphere and the stratosphere. The soot that rises into the atmosphere is practically impervious to sunlight. In other words, on the surface of the Earth under the canopy of these clouds, even on the sunniest day it will be darker than on an inclement moonless night. Naturally, not receiving light and heat, the surface of the Earth under the soot clouds will begin to cool down quickly. Hypothetically possible events will occur – "nuclear winter" and "nuclear night". After formation of soot clouds, the Earth's surface will cease to be heated by solar rays and the temperature will drop sharply. Already in the first month the average temperature of the land surface in the northern hemisphere may decrease by 15-20 and even by 25 degrees Celsius, and in some places remote from the oceans – by 30-35 degrees. As a result, the biosphere will receive such a blow that it is unlikely to recover and return to its original state. If life can survive on land after a nuclear catastrophe, it will be in a very damaged form. In any case, the higher animals will not survive the catastrophe. One can think that the same fate will befall the living world of the ocean. Indeed, the initial link of all oceanic trophic chains is phytoplankton. But it will most likely perish, although the ocean temperature will change only slightly. The reason for its death will be different: for more than a year phytoplankton will be deprived of sunlight – the basis of its vital activity. A nuclear strike on the biosphere dramatically changes the path of its evolution. The consequences cannot be predicted in every detail. The biosphere will probably not disappear altogether. However, it will undergo such a qualitative reorganization that will exclude the possibility of further existence of higher animals and plants, which will probably perish during the nuclear winter. It goes without saying that the same fate will befall man, no matter where he is, whether in the United States or Russia, South Africa or Australia. No matter where in the world a nuclear strike occurs (with or without retaliation), its climatic consequence will be a "nuclear winter" that humanity will not be able to survive. In addition to the climatic consequences of a nuclear strike, there would be devastating concentrations of radiation that would exceed the lethal dose over a large area of the Earth's surface, explosions of nuclear power plants, epidemics, and much more. My report is finished," the speaker said and fell silent.
The lighted section of the table in front of him went out.
Chapter 3: Nuclear War – A Pessimistic Scenario
After a short pause, the chairman of the meeting took the floor.
– Now, colleagues, let's hear two more versions of the consequences of atomic war. Optimistic and pessimistic. Pessimistic: "Possible scenarios and a review of the main hypotheses about the consequences of atomic war". You have the floor, Master.
Jarovitovich turned his face to the man sitting to his right. The Magister made a slight nod of his head and the area on the table in front of him lit up. Rutra noticed that the text of the report appeared in that area, but only when the speaker stopped speaking or pressed his finger on the spot.
– Dear colleagues, masters, gentlemen. In mid-December 2018, International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War analyzed the consequences of a local nuclear conflict.
A couple of decades after the invention of nuclear weapons, scientists began to wonder about the consequences of their large-scale use. According to most apocalyptic hypotheses, in the event of a local or global nuclear conflict, colossal amounts of smoke and ash would be released into the atmosphere at once. Almost all scientists agree that there will be climate change. It is not clear just exactly what these changes will be. Some are inclined to talk about a sharp and significant increase in temperature, others – about its fall to Arctic values, others – about a slight change in temperature graphs. In any case, none of the proposed scenarios gives mankind a serious chance of survival: and if anyone can survive a global nuclear war, they will still die of hunger and disease. The number of casualties from nuclear conflicts of varying intensity could range from a billion to four billion, with a subsequent active population decline from epidemics, starvation, and poisoning. Within days of a major nuclear conflict, temperatures on Earth would rise. As a result of the nuclear explosions themselves, as well as the numerous fires caused by them, the temperature on Earth will become several degrees higher. The increase in temperature will lead to various natural disasters, including flooding of low-lying areas of land due to melting glaciers. In addition, the explosions will release a huge amount of nitrogen dioxide into the atmosphere, which will cause almost complete destruction of the protective ozone layer over the Earth's surface. Thus, the greenhouse effect will only intensify. According to the most optimistic forecasts, the "nuclear summer" will last one to three years, but many scientists are sure that it will be much longer.
The speaker coughed and continued speaking:
– There is only one difference between the popular "nuclear summer" scenarios. Some researchers say it will begin immediately after a nuclear war. Others believe that the summer will be preceded by a short nuclear winter. The "nuclear winter" theory has many opponents, who, in particular, remind us that since 1945, more than two thousand nuclear tests have been conducted worldwide, which is equivalent to a full-scale protracted conflict. Nevertheless, there has been no serious climate change. The theory of "nuclear winter" also does not take into account the greenhouse effect and heating of soot particles by the sun. In addition, as skeptics note, previous observations of large volcanic eruptions and oil fires have not shown soot and aerosols rising more than six kilometers from the surface of the earth. At this altitude, water vapor condenses rapidly on the soot, and it falls to the ground with rainfall in a short time. Consequences: the Fall variant. In the second half of the 2000s, researchers began talking about a "nuclear fallback." The program was developed by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. In support of their theory, supporters of the "nuclear autumn", as well as "nuclear winter", cited studies of climate change in the Persian Gulf after the war between Iraq and Kuwait in August 1990. In January 1991, the Iraqi forces that captured Kuwait retreated but set fire to some 700 oil wells. The fires were not put out until November. However, only a fraction of the smoke reached the stratosphere and Asia was not affected. After the fires stopped, the climate returned to normal within a year. Almost completely the consequences of the global nuclear conflict will disappear only after 90-100 years. My report is over, colleagues.
Finally this speaker finished his speech as well, the lights in front of him went out.
Chapter 4. Nuclear War – An Optimistic Scenario
– Now let's hear an optimistic view of the problem. You have the floor," Yarovitovich pointed to a colleague sitting on the left, third in the row.
The area on the table in front of him turned on and a text appeared on it. Without a greeting, the speaker began his report:
– By the mid-1970s, the accumulation of huge stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction in the USA and the USSR and the threat of mutual annihilation gave rise to many phobias among ordinary people. Thus, among the probable consequences of a global nuclear war between the superpowers as a result of numerous nuclear explosions were: the possibility of splitting the Earth's crust, changes in the planet's orbit and tilt axis, thermonuclear detonation as a result of underwater nuclear explosions of "heavy water" accumulated in the depths of the world's oceans. Mankind has never had enough nuclear warheads for this. People tend to exaggerate their own power, importance and, as a consequence, their ability to control large energies. The amount of solar radiation absorbed by the Earth in one day alone is many times greater than the energy consumed by the entire humanity. It is known that in the prehistoric past seismic and volcanic activity on the planet was much greater, but it did not lead to the extinction of life. Some volcanoes in one day of eruption emit into the atmosphere energy that exceeds the annual electricity production of any country. More than 3500 thousand volcanic eruptions were recorded in the 20th century. In large eruptions, the amount of energy released exceeds the power of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima by a factor of tens or even hundreds. These eruptions often cause significant damage to the economies of individual countries and may cause loss of life, but they have had no noticeable effect on population growth. Numerous atmospheric nuclear tests have shown that mass fires are simply impossible in the shockwave zone. References to the example of mass fires in the nuclear bombed Hiroshima are absolutely incorrect. This Japanese city, where bamboo buildings prevailed, burned out not because of the impact of light radiation, but because of mass kitchen fires in damaged buildings, as the majority of the Japanese population at that time used coal stoves for cooking. Of course, there are exceptions: nuclear explosions in the vicinity of oil refineries, large fuel storage facilities, or oilfields are bound to produce significant soot emissions into the atmosphere. However, the experience of the 1991 events in the Persian Gulf clearly shows that the smoke from many burning oil wells and oil storages did not rise above 6 kilometers and did not reach the stratosphere. Proponents of the "nuclear winter" theory are fond of recalling the large eruption of the Tambora volcano on the Indonesian island of Sumbawa in 1815. The effect of this powerful eruption resulted in some cooling, but despite crop failures and famine, there was no significant reduction in population.
The speaker fell silent, pondering something, and returned to the speech:
– It is likely that nuclear power plants, burial grounds, chemical plants, as well as volcanoes and supervolcanoes all over the planet, which are likely to wake up and release ash and energy into the atmosphere, will surpass the negative consequences of nuclear war itself. As for Yellowstone or other supervolcanoes – there is no reason to believe that the energy of 100-500 kiloton airbursts 100-500 kilotons apart is enough to trigger their eruption. The radioactivity of the explosion products decreases rapidly over time; in 7, 49 and 343 days after the explosion their activity decreases by a factor of 10, 100 and 1000, respectively, compared to the activity one hour after the explosion. Strikes on nuclear power plants, spent nuclear fuel storage facilities and nuclear industry enterprises are another matter. Destruction of such facilities can release thousands of times more radioactive material into the air than would be produced by a bomb explosion. In the event of a direct hit by a charge and vaporization of a reactor or radioactive material storage facility, the area of land uninhabitable would be hundreds, and possibly thousands, of times larger than the area contaminated by a ground-based nuclear explosion. The majority of the population would be doomed to extinction due to the destruction of life-supporting infrastructure, even without exposure to the destructive factors of nuclear weapons, and without food, medical care, and shelter over their heads. Nuclear war would kill a significant portion of the world's population, but millions would survive and retain key technologies. Countries in the subtropical belt, far from areas where nuclear weapons would be used, would be in the best position to benefit.
– Well, that's another topic. Thank you, we heard you," Yarovitovich interrupted him and continued on his own while the panel analyzed what they had heard. – So, colleagues, we have considered different versions of the reports, which were compiled on the basis of even more analyses. Now we have to make a decision. According to the calculations we have made, the optimal time for the operation is from December 25 to February 29 inclusive, and territorially over the Atlantic Ocean. Who has any arguments for changing the plan?
Everyone at the table was silent. After a couple of seconds, the head continued:
– So the decision has been made; may we have a bright memory in decision making.
From the edge of the table to Jarovich's left, one of his colleagues, a middle-aged woman, suddenly asked for the floor. Yarovitovich nodded silently as a sign of permission. She slowly began to speak in Japanese.
– Dear colleagues, we have assumed a great responsibility; perhaps, we will not meet at all or will meet after an indefinite period of time in another composition, so I will make a reasonable amendment taking into account the fact that we are taking such a risk. The amendment is as follows: to make a final and precise division of the territory and spheres of influence in Antarctica. After all, we still haven't determined the ecological and climatic consequences with certainty and precision. It is quite possible that this continent will remain the cleanest and will no longer be so cold.
No one made a sound. It seemed that the heartbeats of the sitting could be heard. The silence was broken by Yarovitovich:
– That's an excellent point. But let me note: if we have a way to resettle huge masses of population there or even if someone has a desire to fight for this territory, not obeying us, and to divide it contrary to our preliminary treaty, then, following the logic, in this state of affairs we should certainly have an opportunity to gather at the General Assembly and control the main forces. Accordingly, since you have indicated this subject, you are instructed to speak at the General Assembly and voice the main provisions of the international agreements on the spheres of influence in Antarctica. Speak so that no one was left in doubt that the subject was closed.
After waiting for a pause, the head summarized:
– If in the remaining time there are any proposals based solely on substantial, solid arguments, please send them verbally through our mail or openly, in a language that only we understand, through the media. The action plan is known and agreed upon by all, and we will proceed with its implementation.
The room fell into the silence familiar at times like this.
– Any other suggestions? – The Chief Magister asked.
There was no reply, it was clear that everyone was confirmed in their opinion and expressed the general solidarity of the representatives of the elected caste.
– Then let our meeting be declared concluded. May sanity protect us," Jarovitovich announced.
The attendees stood up as if on cue, and each headed for a separate exit.
